Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Bernanke: "Economic Implications of Brexit"

I bet he, at minimum, considered going with "The Economic Consequences of the Brexit".
Much as I contemplated a little alliteration.

From Ben Bernanke's Blog at Brookings:
After several days of market upset, a few reflections on last week’s momentous vote in Great Britain.
Even more obvious now than before the vote is that the biggest losers, economically speaking, will be the British themselves. The vote ushers in what will be several years of tremendous uncertainty—about the rules that will govern the U.K.’s trade with its continental neighbors, about the fates of foreign workers in Britain and British workers abroad, and about the country’s political direction, including perhaps where its borders will ultimately lie. Such fundamental uncertainty will depress business formation, capital investment, and hiring; indeed, it had begun to do so even before the vote.
The U.K. economic slowdown to come will be exacerbated by falling asset values (houses, commercial real estate, stocks) and damaged confidence on the part of households and businesses. Ironically, the sharp decline in the value of the pound may be a bit of a buffer here as, all else equal, it will make British exports more competitive.

In the longer run, the uncertainty will dissipate, but the economic costs to the U.K. still will exceed the benefits. Financial services and other globally oriented industries, which depend on unfettered access to European markets and exchanges, will come under pressure. At the same time, the purported gains from freeing the U.K. from the heavy regulatory hand of Brussels will be limited, because Britain will likely have to accept most of those rules (without ability to influence them) as part of restructured trade agreements. Immigration is unpopular in the U.K., and slowing it was a motivation for some “leave” voters, but a more slowly growing labor force likely would also reduce overall economic growth.

The rest of Europe will also be adversely affected, even though Frankfurt and a few other cities may gain finance jobs at the expense of London. The biggest risks here are political, as has been widely noted: In particular, markets are already beginning to price in the risk that other countries or regions will press for greater autonomy from Brussels. Even those sympathetic to such demands should worry that attempts to unwind existing trade and regulatory arrangements could be highly disruptive, as they will likely be for Great Britain. A move toward exit by a member of the euro zone would be particularly destabilizing, as even the possibility that a country might leave the common currency could provoke bank runs and speculative attacks on the country’s sovereign debt and on other countries that might be thought to be next in line. The challenge for European leaders will be to keep the overall integration process on track, while finding ways to meet the concerns of potential leavers.

One issue that could be revisited is the EU’s commitment to the absolutely free movement of people across borders, which seems more a political than an economic principle; the perception that the U.K. had lost control of its borders was one of the most effective arguments for “leave,” and secessionist movements elsewhere have also seized on the issue. [1]

Globally, the Brexit shock is being transmitted mostly through financial markets, as investors sell off risky assets like stocks and flock to supposed safe havens like the dollar and the sovereign debt of the U.S., Germany, and Japan....MORE

"California Hits the Brakes on High-Speed Rail Fiasco"

From the "Damn, this guy knows what he's talking about" (not me, the analyst) file: Five years ago we read an analysis that predicted almost exactly how this would play out. Links below.

And as I said in a 2014 piece on a proposed Houston-Dallas run:
...Don't get me wrong, I'm all for high-speed rail, it's just that in the U.S., in every single instance the promoters have been lying scum.
Every single time.
At one time the cost estimates had ballooned to $100 billion before huge chunks of the approved project were jettisoned, leaving just a $35 billion cost overrun.

From Bloomberg:
California's high-speed rail project increasingly looks like an expensive social science experiment to test just how long interest groups can keep money flowing to a doomed endeavor before elected officials finally decide to cancel it. What combination of sweet-sounding scenarios, streamlined mockups, ever-changing and mind-numbing technical detail, and audacious spin will keep the dream alive?

Sold to the public in 2008 as a visionary plan to whisk riders along at 220 miles an hour, making the trip from San Francisco to Los Angeles in a little over two and a half hours, the project promised to attract most of the necessary billions from private investors, to operate without ongoing subsidies and to charge fares low enough to make it competitive with cheap flights. With those assurances, 53.7 percent of voters said yes to a $9.95 billion bond referendum to get the project started. But the assurances were at best wishful thinking, at worst an elaborate con.

The total construction cost estimate has now more than doubled to $68 billion from the original $33 billion, despite trims in the routes planned. The first, easiest-to-build, segment of the system -- the “train to nowhere” through a relatively empty stretch of the Central Valley -- is running at least four years behind schedule and still hasn’t acquired all the needed land. Predicted ticket prices to travel from LA to the Bay have shot from $50 to more than $80. State funding is running short. Last month’s cap-and-trade auction for greenhouse gases, expected to provide $150 million for the train, yielded a mere $2.5 million. And no investors are lining up to fill the $43 billion construction-budget gap.

Now, courtesy of Los Angeles Times reporter Ralph Vartabedian, comes yet another damning revelation: When the Spanish construction company Ferrovial submitted its winning bid for a 22-mile segment, the proposal included a clear and inconvenient warning: “More than likely, the California high speed rail will require large government subsidies for years to come.” Ferrovial reviewed 111 similar systems around the world and found only three that cover their operating costs.
This research should surprise no one who pays attention. Even advocates acknowledge that almost all high-speed rail systems need ongoing subsidies.

But the California High-Speed Rail Authority steadfastly maintains that its trains will be the exception: “HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN CALIFORNIA WILL NOT REQUIRE OPERATING SUBSIDIES,” a 2013 fact sheet declared, in all caps. The authority has to keep up the charade or admit to breaking the promises that persuaded voters to back the project in the first place....MORE
Here's 2011's "California High Speed Rail: The Man Who Predicted The Cost and the Delay".

If interested see also:
Don't Argue Choo-choos With Reason: PolitiFact Gets High-Speed Rail Facts in Florida Wrong

and previously on the California Dreaming channel:
Mother Jones: "California High Speed Rail Now Even More Ridiculous Than Before"
California High-speed Rail Costs Triple to $100 Billion (and it will be arriving late) 
California High Speed Rail: The Man Who Predicted The Cost and the Delay 
Jerry Brown Rejects $100 Billion Cost Estimate, Says Cap-and-trade Fees Will Fund High-speed Rail

*From the San Jose Mercury News 20Dec2010:

"The Fedwire recession"

From Moneyness:
I last wrote about Fedwire data two years ago. Since then, Fedwire has entered into a (nominal) recession. Is this something we need to worry about?

We should be interested in this data because Fedwire is the U.S.'s most important financial utility. Operated by the Federal Reserve, Fedwire processes payments between the nation's commercial banks using central banks money, or reserves, as the settlement medium. It accounts for a significant chunk of U.S. spending, or aggregate demand.

Below you'll see a chart of quarterly Fedwire transaction values using data back to 1992. It shows the total dollar volume sent over Fedwire each quarter:
You can see that the flow of spending conducted over Fedwire has been declining since the third quarter of 2014; a six quarter decline. How rare is it to see this degree of stagnation? To check, I've plotted Fedwire yearly data going back to 1987:
Assuming 2016 continues to trend lower (as it has in the first five months), then we are on the verge of seeing two consecutive years of declines in Fedwire transaction flows. The only other time we've seen this sort of pullback since the data starts is from 2008-2010.

What makes the current Fedwire recession especially interesting is that the go-to measure of spending, nominal gross domestic product, continues to grow, at least tepidly. Fedwire provides a much broader measure of U.S. spending than nominal GDP, which measures spending on final goods and services. To get a feel for this difference, in 2015, U.S. NGDP amounted to $17.9 trillion. Fedwire transactions came out to $834 trillion, exceeding NGDP by a factor of 40x....MORE

In Non-Brexit News: "...Man faces billions in fines for storing wood"

From the Dallas Morning News:

 Wood like this can often be found on vacant land, but a Flower Mound man has been threatened with fines of up to $2 billion for storing wood on property he owned in Hunt County.
Flower Mound resident Kirk Grady owned some Hunt County property with a woodpile for about three years before he sold it in 2002.

Hunt County now wants to collect as much as $2 billion from him in fines for improper waste disposal, he says. Hunt County sued Grady in Travis County last year, and Grady is fighting back with a federal lawsuit.

Grady's Dallas attorney, Michael R. Goldman, blames the "ridiculous and unconscionable" legal action on the county's  hiring of a private law firm to prosecute the state lawsuit with a contingency-fee provision. That means the law firm gets to keep a percentage of whatever is collected.

That has given the firm a perverse incentive to sue for as much money as possible, said Goldman. And critics say some elected officials could use the law to reward lawyers who give money to their campaigns, as was alleged in a Dallas case.

Such contingency-fee arrangements are legal under Texas law. The law, passed almost 50 years ago, gave local governments the authority to file lawsuits seeking civil penalties for alleged violations of the state's environmental laws.

Grady is challenging that law as unconstitutional in the federal lawsuit filed last month in Dallas.

Lawsuits spread
Goldman said there are currently about 50 such cases across Texas because law firms seeking big payouts are pitching these arrangements to mostly smaller cities and counties. He said the sales pitch is that local governments have zero risk and can earn potentially big revenue from enforcing state environmental laws.......MUCH MORE

It's Probably Time To Revisit Our 2008 Market Meltdown/Meltup Theme Song

As noted in "Commentary On Greece From the Ramones":
Last seen in 2014's "Last Surviving Founding Member of The Ramones Dies At 65"* this song was our theme song from September 2008 to March 2009, displacing Modern English's Melt With You and/or The Scorpions Rock You Like A Hurricane for those six months:
*This piece has had numerous edits. I corrected the age in our headline, made a note that the drummer in the video is Marky not Tommy, changed the attendance figure for the US festival and added some timeline.
Other than that...regret the error etc....


Pound, Schmound, These Moves Are Nothin'

The headline is a riff on a post from the New York Fed's blog (after the jump) the article is a riff on the reaction of folks conditioned to equity-type moves when confronted with FX or commodities.

From ZeroHedge:

About That Historic Collapse In Sterling: It Was "Only" The 9th Biggest Drop Going Back To 1862
Over the past several days, the financial media has been preoccupied with the fascinating - and historic - drop in sterling which as this site also noted, was the biggest in history. As it turns out, that is not the case, as the data was limited by the available records on file with major service providers such as Bloomberg and Reuters. However, if one goes back in time, as DB's Jim Reid has done, it appears that Friday's sterling move was rather puny by true historical comparisons.

As Reid writes, "I'm sure you've read by now that Sterling's drop on Friday (-7.64% based on GFD data) was the largest on record against the dollar. Think again. Although it's the biggest drop since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s there have been 8 bigger daily down moves since 1862.
The bigger moves (with brief reasons for those within the last century) are 1) 19 Sep 1949: (-30.41%) Pound devalued under Bretton Woods due to economic concerns; 2) 21 Sep 1931: (-23.57%) Gold Standard abandoned in the Depression; 3) 30 Sep 1869: (-18.75%); 4) 20 Nov 1967: (-13.02%) Harold Wilson's famous 'pound in your pocket' devaluation to battle the UK's economic problems; 5) 25 Mar 1863: (-10.90%); 6) 10 May 1940: (-9.79%) War related deviation from the dollar peg; 7) 25 Sep 1931: (-7.89%) A few days after the Gold Standard was abandoned, the pound continued to depreciate although it did jump by 7.14% next day. 8) 19 June 1866: (-7.76%).

So in the >38,000 business days since 1862, Friday was only the 9th worse day for Sterling. So maybe it's not all that bad...
From the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Liberty Street Economics blog, May 6, 2016:

Historical Echoes: Echoes, Schmechoes, This Post Only Has a Drop of History in It
You might hear: “Economy eschmonomy.” Another possibility is: “Economy schmeconomy.” This phenomenon of repeating a word with the prefix shm- (or sometimes “schm-”), is called shm-reduplication. It challenges the relevance and sometimes the value of the repeated word, and examples can be found in articles like this Newsday clip “The High End: Economy, shmeconomy — the rich still travel.”

Who cares about whether it’s eschmonomy or schmeconomy? A pair of linguists from MIT and Harvard, that’s who. This 2003 paper describes the authors’ attempt to understand how the shm-reduplication works (the linguistic rules that govern its use) and how the researchers used interviews and questionnaires to investigate those rules. The authors also review the Yiddish origins of this usage (there are competing theories), provide a short section on the meaning of phrases that use the reduplication, and inform us that there is a relative lack of study of this form of reduplication (there are a few other forms).

Who loves shm-reduplication? The media; print, online, broadcast . . . you name it. It’s a very compact linguistic device. A simple two-word phrase can convey a wealth of information about the author (or speaker), the audience, the object of the shm-reduplication, and the overall situation. “Economy eschmonomy” could mean the opposite of “it’s the economy, stupid” — phrased differently: Never mind about the economy, this other thing (aliens from outer space, for example) is much more important. Or it could be a more personal statement: Forget about the economy, I’m going on a vacation (this comes up in an example below).

Some illustrative examples of shm-reduplication on the web:

Currency shmurrency In Barron’s, columnist Alan Abelson says: “For even if Beijing were to up the value of the yuan by as much a 15% … it wouldn't get our somnolent factories up and smoking again. The reason is simply that what our manufacturing workers earn in an hour, their counterparts in China earn in a week. Currency, shmurrency, no matter how hard and how smart our folks work, that gap is as ugly and daunting as it is yawning.” (June 2005)

Interest rates, schminterest rates South African blogger, Piet Viljoen, says that interest rate fluctuations shouldn’t affect your stock portfolio. (March 2009)

Income Schmincome In a brief post on NewRepublic.com, Martin Peretz pokes fun at the headline choices of several major papers in reporting President Obama’s income. (April 2009)...MORE

A Burgler's Guide To The City--How a Criminal Sees the World

Not The City, the city, as in the built environment.

From The Guardian, June 24, 2016:

Burglars look at buildings in a different way, seeing lift shafts that can be shimmied up and plasterboard walls to cut through. This playful book is crammed with good anecdotes 
In June 1986, strange mechanical sounds were heard coming from the ground around the vault of the First Interstate Bank in Hollywood. The police and the bank’s own security staff investigated but could find nothing wrong. The noises were dismissed as “just a rat running around inside the walls or something”. But they continued. Sometimes there were temporary power cuts or interruptions to the phone system. One night, the internal muzak system started playing, scaring an employee who was working late. Staff joked that the bank was haunted. But no one was laughing when an employee opened the vault one day and discovered a tunnel drilled through the floor: $172,000 in cash and $2.5m in personal belongings had been stolen.

The three- or four-man team had driven Suzuki quad bikes through West Hollywood’s narrow storm sewer network to access the area from below. Then the gang, who were probably trained in mining, slowly drilled a 30 metre tunnel up into the vault. It was an extraordinarily daring heist, the inspiration for Michael Connelly’s detective novel, The Black Echo (1992). The Hole in the Ground Gang, as it became known, was never caught.

“Their tunnel was fantastic”, a retired FBI agent tells architectural writer Geoff Manaugh. Such devious misuses of the city’s buildings and infrastructure are the focus of this highly original book. Burglary, Manaugh writes, is “topology pursued by other means: a new science of the city, proceeding by way of shortcuts, splices and wormholes”. Burglars don’t see the city we see. They see a network of vulnerabilities to be used for breaking and entering. They see lift shafts that can be shimmied up, thermal cameras that can be disabled with hairspray, and doors that can be easily opened with lockpicks.

They see plasterboard walls that can be cut through in an instant: “like clouds, apartment walls are mostly air”. According to Manaugh, burglars understand the architecture of the city better than anyone. They are the “dark wizards of cities and buildings, unlimited by laws that hold the rest of us in”.

Manaugh begins and ends his “burglar’s guide” with the man who was responsible for “one of the most spatially astonishing crime sprees in US history”. George Leonidas Leslie arrived in New York City in 1869, the year construction began on the Brooklyn Bridge. A trained architect, he was ambitious, charismatic and well-connected: he could have worked for any of the city’s wealthiest clients. Instead he chose to use his training “to rob the place blind”. Before his career was cut short in 1878, when he was murdered by one of his partners in crime, it was estimated that he and his gang were responsible for nearly 80% of bank robberies in the US.

The “preternaturally gifted” Leslie collected “a burglar’s library of architectural documents” and spent months and even years casing targets. He broke into banks just to wander their corridors at night, measuring and timing as he went. Leslie believed “the best way to commune with an architectural space was by breaking into it”. He used this information to build life-size models of targets in a Brooklyn warehouse, “stage sets on which the art of burglary could be rehearsed to perfection”. Having become an underworld architectural consultant, advising criminals on their heists, he was, writes Manaugh, “both burglary’s patron saint and architecture’s fallen angel”.

Leslie exemplifies Manaugh’s argument that “burglary is designed into the city as surely as your morning commute”. To explore this delightfully subversive idea he takes to the skies with the Air Support Division of the LAPD, which operates the largest police helicopter fleet in the world from a building he describes as “a kind of beached warship in the heart of the city”. Always fascinated by new technology, he gazes through the helicopter’s infra-red camera at “the strangely beautiful thermal flare of human life” below, and explains how the latest radar gadget will allow the police to see people deep inside buildings.

There are 900 miles of highway in sprawling LA, which helped to make it the bank robbery capital of the world in the 1990s: “every city blooms with the kinds of crime most appropriate to its form”. In the future, Manaugh suggests, getaways will be engineered by hacking the city: think The Italian Job but with drones used to reprogram the lights at each intersection. Manaugh cites the example of a school boy in Łodz, Poland, who modified his TV remote control and created a superswitch for the city’s tram signalling system.

Having learned that the operating system of New Songdo City, South Korea, is backed up and stored in a secret safe deposit box, he speculates that whoever stole it could perpetrate “the heist of the century” – its owner of the operating system to a smart city would possess the digital key to every electronic door lock, surveillance camera and bank vault. The ultimate master key.

There are some wonderful anecdotes in Manaugh’s book, such as the hapless burglar who phoned the police when he became convinced someone else was robbing the house he was burgling. Another burglar cut his way through the plasterboard walls of an entire Baltimore block: “he was the worm in the apple, eating from one unit to the next”, leaving in his wake “a whorled halo of negative space like a vortex through which household goods would disappear”. And then there was the man who was caught after 10 hours crawling through the air ducts of a veterinary clinic in an attempt to steal tranquillisers. He was naked and armed with a flashlight and hammer, “like some surreal nudist remake of Die Hard”....MORE
I had intended to post on the book when it was published but some disaster or other was striking and I moved on to other things. HT for the reminder to Atlas Obscura who focus on a different part of the topic:
...Stewart also described how museums create choke points and funnels, where corridors and pathways narrow to bottleneck movement, manage circulation, or give security time to corner a fleeing criminal. This same architectural feature can be found in casinos. However, in Nevada, many of the first casinos dotting Las Vegas and Reno were not built with security in mind.

“Instead, security managers now have to find a way to retroactively build choke points into the layout and funnel everybody past high-resolution cameras,” Jason England, a Las Vegas-based magician and authority on casino gambling, told Manaugh, like the oddly placed escalators at the entrance of many casinos. The result “might not be great buildings, in an architectural sense—but they are great at taking pictures of you.”

Manaugh spoke to Darrel Clifton, a well-respected leader in the security world and the head of security at the Circus Circus—a 37-year-old hotel and casino in Reno, Nevada that lacks the kind of ideal architectural design for security. Clifton has to be scrappy. Decorations, furniture, gaming stations, and retail cash registers are all coordinated with camera placement to ensure comprehensive views of a space while blending into the environment as much as possible, Manaugh wrote. 
Circus Circus in Reno has 1,572 hotel rooms and a 65,000 square foot casino all of which needs to be monitored carefully. (Photo: Ken Lund/CC BY-SA 2.0)
Clifton uses landscape architecture to his favor, selecting a particular species of plant called trifoliate orange not for beauty, but for creating a protective barrier—a living fence. The dense, fast-growing thorny plant, commonly referred to as the Rambo bush, can stop speeding vehicles and has even been used to secure U.S. military buildings, such as missile silos and armories.

Convenient modes of transportation inside buildings manage movement, while also providing another opportunity to track people. Escalators in casinos and other buildings serve as an optical apparatus that give security teams an almost 360-degree view of everyone moving through the interior of the building.

“People will dutifully line up one behind the other and most people, especially in the U.S., don’t walk on escalators. They’ll just stand there even if it’s just a 20-foot ride,” Manaugh says. “It gives the security team an extra 20 or 30 seconds to take photographs or video footage from pretty much any side.”
 These escalators at the Circus Circus in Las Vegas (a different casino than the one Clifton operates) give security experts the advantage of scoping out burglars. (Photo: inazakira/CC BY-SA 2.0)
An elevator is even smart enough to catch burglars. Elevators have scales that can calculate the weight and number of people occupying the carriage. At a casino in Reno, a security manager, who is a friend of Manaugh's, told him that an elevator flagged a person that weighed much more than he was supposed to and was caught with hundreds of dollars’ worth of coins hidden in his clothes....MORE  

"Thousands Of British Refugees Making Dangerous Journey Across The Irish Sea"

Via Euronews

M&G eyes moving more funds to Dublin after Brexit vote
LONDON (Reuters) – British asset manager M&G Investments, the fund arm of insurer Prudential, is looking at relocating more of its operations to Dublin in the wake of a British vote to leave the European Union....MORE
And from The Waterford Whispers News, on the spot reportage:

THE IRISH coast guard has today issued a nationwide warning for the East Coast as hundreds of thousands of British refugees risk their lives to cross the Irish sea in an attempt to flee the impoverished and unstable nation.

Dinghies overflowing with desperate migrants are so far half way through their journey, many with women and children aboard, wishing to make a new start on the Emerald Isle.

“We have rescued hundreds of people from crafts due to overcrowding,” winchman Derek Ryan of Rescue 117 told WWN today. “It’s a terrible situation as many of these people are only hoping for a better quality of life in the EU”.

Taoiseach Enda Kenny has called an emergency meeting in the Dáil this afternoon to help find a solution to the influx of British refugees.

It is expected many of those landing on the Irish coast will have to be quarantined, as they are not a part of the European Union....MORE
HT: naked capitalism

Reminiscent of some other stories over the years:
Voting With Their Hooves: "Dairy Cows Flee California Seeking a Better Economic Climate for Themselves and their Calves"
Thousands Of Migrants Flee Finland Hoping For A Better Life In Iraq
The headline is a takeoff on a factoid in 2012's "Migrant Workers Leaving Greece, Going Home to Albania....":
...from a 2002 Federal Reserve Board Open Market Committee transcript:
“There is growing anecdotal evidence that this may be due to Mexican immigrants departing the United States in search of a better life in Mexico
Also via naked capitalism:
Has Technology Estranged Us to the Point That We Need to Rent Friends?

This Camp Alphaville Line-Up Is Stunning

I've kidded around about the 'native advertising'* but with all due respect: wow.
From FT Alphaville:

Camp Alphaville tickets are selling out… (updated with latest schedule)
When they’re gone, they’re gone. There’s only so many people we can house, comfortably, under canvas in the lovely grounds of the Honourable Artillery Company, London EC1, at the FT’s Festival of Finance. The event is this Friday. Doors open at 10am.
We already had a packed schedule. Consider how timely some of the following sessions now look:

– Martin Sandbu, FT Free Lunch Columnist, will be sitting down with Peter Praet, Chief Economist at the ECB

– Fast FT’s Katie Martin will be hosting a special Brexit discussion with Steve Keen of Kingston Univeristy, Toby Nangle from Columbia Threadneedle, Richard Woolnough of M&G and Mike Amey from Pimco.

– Cardiff Garcia will be talking Peak Globalisation with Charles Kenny from the Center for Global Development, Citi’s Tina Fordham, Paul Donovan of UBS and Diane Coyle from Enlightenment Economics.

– Ann Pettifor will be doing a presentation on The New Nationalism: the Money Story, followed by an interactive roundtable discussion featuring Frances Coppola, Tyler Cowen and Srinivas Thiruvadanthai.

– Hyun Song Shin will be speaking! He’s the head of research at BIS and he’ll be joined by Helene Rey, professor of economics at the LBS, along with Karthik Sankaran, Eurasia Group’s director of global strategy....

*Native Advertising In The Age of Brexit 

Monday, June 27, 2016

Jim Rogers On Brexit: 'Worse Than Any Bear Market You’ve Seen in Your Lifetime", The Living Will Envy the Dead

He didn't really use the "living/dead" line.*
From Yahoo Finance:

The EU and euro may not exist in five years, warns legendary investor
The UK's decision to leave the European Union will lead to an economic crisis more severe than what the world faced in 2008, according to legendary investor Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings.

“This is going to be worse than any bear market you’ve seen in your lifetime,” he said on Yahoo Finance’s “Market Movers” program Monday. “2008 was bad because of debt. The debt all over the world is much, much higher now. Stocks in the US, for instance, have been going sideways for 18 months to 24 months. That’s called a distribution by many people. When you have distribution for a year and a half, it usually leads to bad things.”

Rogers — who cofounded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in the 1970s — believes the “leave” movement’s victory last week may threaten the British union. While any negotiated deal may help assuage the market’s Brexit fears, Rogers foresees a “bad case scenario” where Scotland and Northern Ireland leave the UK and London’s clout diminishes significantly as financial institutions move towards continental Europe.

“The UK already has huge international debts and it has balance of trade problems and budget problems,” he said. “The bear case is the pound disappears. England becomes Spain or Poland or Italy or something.”

While he doesn’t see an immediate collapse of England’s economy, Rogers anticipates a long-term decline in the country’s prospects.

The deterioration will continue and make stocks go down a lot,” he warned....MORE
That's technical talk for 'make stocks go down a lot'. 

*Back to the living/dead line. We've used it a few times, not so much the variant ascribed to Khrushchev and nuclear war but rather, in pirate talk:
Aug. 2015
...And employees who broke their backs for these startups would realize just a how demoralizing the process can be. 
But those are the lucky ones....MORE
Aarrgh, them with the broken backs be the lucky ones and the living will envy the dead....
Sept. 2013
Having a strange attraction to the piratical (Climateer was a mashup of climate and buccaneer/profiteer/have a beer grog) we have collected pirate tales since the blog's early days.

It all began with the official International Talk Like A Pirate Day website and went downhill from there.
They now have an international singalong (some quite creative) that I like to introduce with:
"There! That's what I think of ye. Before an hour's out, I'll stove in your old block house like a rum puncheon. Laugh, by thunder, laugh! Before an hour's out, ye'll laugh upon the other side. Them that die'll be the lucky ones...
If now-concerned reader had asked why I went with the pirate "living/dead" thing I couldn't have explained to save my life but it turns out there was a reason. From WikiQuote: 

  • The living will envy the dead.
    • The attribution of this widely quoted remark about nuclear war to Khrushchev is disputed in Respectfully Quoted : A Dictionary of Quotations (1989).
    • In Russia this quote is usually attributed to the translation of Treasure Island by Nikolay Chukovsky: "А те из вас, кто останется в живых, позавидуют мертвым!" ("Those of you who will stay alive will envy the dead", originally: "Them that die'll be the lucky ones").[2]
And there you go, children's books.

Uber Comperitor Lyft Hires M&A Banker Qatalyst Partners

From the Wall Street Journal:

Hiring comes as highly valued startups find it tougher to raise funds from venture capitalists
Ride-hailing startup Lyft Inc. has hired Qatalyst Partners LP, the boutique investment bank best known for helping tech companies find a buyer, according to people familiar with the matter.

Frank Quattrone, the founder and executive chairman of Qatalyst, has contacted companies including large auto makers about acquiring a stake in Lyft, the people said. It isn’t clear whether Lyft is aiming to sell itself or raise new funding, or if it is open to both.

Lyft, the largest U.S. rival to Uber Technologies Inc., has tried to keep up with its larger competitor as both companies burn through capital to expand their ride-hailing services. The two San Francisco companies pour millions of dollars into subsidizing low-price rides and giving cash bonuses to new drivers, and both Uber and Lyft have said such spending has put them on a path to profitability.
Lyft has raised about $2 billion in funding, or less than one-sixth the total funds raised by Uber. Lyft was last valued at $5.5 billion by investors including auto maker General Motors Co.
Hiring Qatalyst, one of the most active Silicon Valley deal makers, may signal Lyft is open to a sale. Qatalyst ranks fourth this year among banks advising on U.S. acquisitions, working on deals totaling $33.7 billion, according to Dealogic. Those deals include a coveted role advising LinkedIn Corp. on its $26 billion sale to Microsoft Corp. , announced two weeks ago.

One potential buyer may be General Motors, which paid $500 million for a 10% stake in Lyft earlier this year and indicated that the ride-hailing service could be crucial to the future of automobiles. The two companies have since agreed to develop self-driving cars and to offer deals on rental cars to Lyft drivers....MORE
"Lyft’s $5.5 Billion Plan for World Domination"
"GM, Lyft to Test Self-Driving Electric Taxis"

Following Up On Y Combinator's Universal Basic Income Experiment: They'd Like To Try Their Hand At Building New Cities

On May 31 we had: "Seed Stage Accelerator Y Combinator Developing A Basic Income Pilot Project" from Y Combinator's Posthaven blog. Here's the latest:

New Cities
We want to study building new, better cities.

The world is full of people who aren’t realizing their potential in large part because their cities don't provide the opportunities and living conditions necessary for success. A high leverage way to improve our world is to unleash this massive potential by making better cities.

It’s more important than ever to think about how to do this. The need for new supply continues to increase significantly [1]. Many constraints related to where cities should be located (e.g. near rivers for trade) have changed. We now have major technologies such as smart grids, autonomous vehicles, etc. The internet itself allows for participation never before possible. Also, housing prices in many cities have become untenable and we need more housing in places people want to live.

Some existing cities will get bigger and there's important work being done by smart people to improve them. We also think it’s possible to do amazing things given a blank slate. Our goal is to design the best possible city given the constraints of existing laws.

There are many high-level questions we want to think through, for example:
  • What should a city optimize for?
  • How should we measure the effectiveness of a city (what are its KPIs)?
  • What values should (or should not) be embedded in a city's culture?
  • How can cities help more of their residents be happy and reach their potential?
  • How can we encourage a diverse range of people to live and work in the city?
  • How should citizens guide and participate in government?
  • How can we make sure a city is constantly evolving and always open to change?

And there are tactical questions we want to dig into, for example:
  • How can we make and keep housing affordable? This is critical to us; the cost of housing affects everything else in a city.
  • How can we lay out the public and private spaces (and roads) to make a great place to live? Can we figure out better zoning laws?
  • What is the right role for vehicles in a city?  Should we have human-driven cars at all?...

The Elites Are Not The Problem, It's The People, Says German Elite

Reminding us of political consultant, strategist and gadfly Dick Tuck and the night he lost a California state Senate Democratic primary contest:
"The people have spoken, the bastards."
The first bit of this short vid is German President Gauck in an interview with German public service broadcaster ARD after he announced he would not be seeking another term:

Schoolboy German translation:
At the moment the elites are not the problem, the people are the problem.
Here's the complete interview (18 minutes).

HT: reddit

A couple days ago a writer at Medium used the "...bastards" quote but didn't give the reference. The backstory makes it all the better.

It Is Time For The Princess of Liechtenstein To Seize This Opportunity To Pursue Her Rightful Claim To Be Queen Of Scotland (and maybe England too, sorry Charles) RBS

After reading Izabella Kaminska's thoughts in this morning's "On the non-viability of an independent Scotland staying in the sterling zone" I asked a friend if there was any way around the conundrum.

He told me something I was not aware of, that Princess Sophie Elisabeth Marie Gabrielle had a legitimate claim to the Crown of Scotland "except for that whole Catholic thing". Then he said "Look it up". And I did.

Here's more, from The Express, November, 2011:

The 'rightful heir' to the Scottish throne
A GERMAN who became a princess after marrying into the little-known Liechtenstein royal family would lay claim to being Scotland's next rightful hereditary queen if laws banning Catholics on the throne were repealed.

Interior design enthusiast Sophie Elisabeth Marie Gabrielle, 44, will one day rule over the tiny European principality following a fairytale wedding to the country's Prince Alois in 1993.

But her family tree shows she is also part of the direct lineage of the House of Stuart, which was kept off the combined thrones of England and Scotland in the late 17th century then effectively ousted by the 1701 Act of Settlement that outlawed Catholic monarchs.

Last week the Scottish Parliament debated repealing the 310-year-old legislation, which eventually led to the Jacobite Uprisings, amid widespread belief it is now outdated and discriminatory on sectarian grounds.

It is unlikely that even if it were ever abolished by Westminster there would be a challenge to the current House of Windsor, but had the Act never existed, Sophie would now be a Scottish princess and would rule as Queen on the deaths of her elderly father and uncle.

Max-Emanuel Ludwig Maria Herzog is the current Jacobite heir to the throne, with his older brother Franz, the self-styled Duke of Bavaria, unmarried and childless.

Jacobite enthusiast Stelios Rigopoulos said that while the Stuart lineage still existed there is "no way" it could ever be given the opportunity to rule the United Kingdom again.

He said: "The Duke of Bavaria is aware of his Scottish heritage but he is not going to be putting any claim for the throne, come over and start a revolution. If anything I think he is quite bemused by it all.

"But because Princess Sophie is married to the Crown Prince of Liechtenstein and therefore to a very much alive monarchy unlike the lineage before her, it is creating a lot of added interest."...MORE
In my defense, I did know that the Prince of Wales is a blood descendant of  Vlad the Impaler and was quoted in the LA Times:
...Prince Charles noted that as a descendant of Vlad the Impaler, the inspiration for Dracula,
"I have a bit of a stake in the country."
"It's in my blood," he said.

Despite His Dire Warnings Soros Did Not Short The Pound This Go-Round

He did however do a run-and-gun on the bookmakers.

I kid. The bookies got beat by little old ladies in the north of England making hundred dollar bets.
Here's the headline story from Barron's Focus on Funds:

Soros Didn’t Short The Pound Before Brexit Vote Despite Warnings
Billionaire investor George Soros is back in the investing game, and warned that the pound would suffer in a Brexit scenario.

Given that one of his claims to fame is his wildly successful short of the UK currency in the 1990s, Soros’s warnings were widely covered in recent weeks. But is this a case of ‘do as I say, not as I do’?
According to Bloomberg’s Francine Lacqua and Sree Vidya Bhaktavatsalam, Soros was long on the pound ahead of the Brexit vote.
In the days before the vote that marked a rupture between the U.K. and the EU, Soros had warned that the pound could slump more than 20 percent against the dollar as voters were grossly underestimating the true cost of Brexit. Sterling plunged 8.1 percent on Friday to its lowest level in more than three decades, and tumbled again on Monday.
“Now the catastrophic scenario that many feared has materialized, making the disintegration of the EU practically irreversible,” Soros wrote in a June 25 essay reflecting on the U.K. vote for Project Syndicate. “The consequences for the real economy will be comparable only to the financial crisis of 2007-2008.”

June 9 
Uh Oh: "A Bearish George Soros Is Trading Again "

"Oil Tumbles Amid Bad News For Glut As US Offshore To Hit Record In 2017"

There is just so darn much of the stuff around. And now there are wihispers that China is close to topping off their strategic reserve and Goldman cuts Britain's expected growth rate from 2% to maybe a couple ticks above zero and Canada's coming back on line and... you get the point, supply/demand and all that as the spec money flees.
WTI down $1.21 at $46.43; Brent $47.29 down a couple+ percent.

From ZeroHedge:
WTI Crude has tumbled back to a $46 handle this morning (from over $50 on Friday) with Brexit volatility weighing on every asset class and Nigeria and Canada restart production (following rebel attacks and wildfires respectively) but as OilPrice.com's Charles Kennedy notes companies pumping oil from the Gulf of Mexico will ramp up production in coming months, propping up American output, despite efforts to curb production and raise barrel prices.

The United States currently produces 8.7 million barrels a day - a half a million less than where the figure stood last year, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Low prices caused by the high output levels have kept oil exploration efforts at a minimum.

Around 500,000 more barrels of crude from Mexico’s namesake gulf will go online by 2017, according to analysis by the Wall Street Journal that included government and private sector sources.

"The projects are coming faster and sometimes bigger than expected,” Roger Diwan of IHS Energy told Dow Jones. "The ramp-up seems to have accelerated during low prices.”

A handful of sizable fields had been funded for construction years prior, when prices were higher. The projects completed construction as scheduled and will begin production in the coming months.

Once the fields become operational, the U.S. Department of Energy predicts offshore oil production will set a record in 2017 with 1.91 million barrels - 24 percent more than in 2015 - flowing out of surrounding bodies of water by next December.

The year 2009 held the previous record for highest offshore oil production rate, but British Petroleum’s spill in the Gulf of Mexico later that year caused a moratorium on the category of drilling.

Mexico has also begun efforts to encourage drilling in the Gulf. A total of 21 companies, including the Who’s Who of Big Oil, have registered to take part in Mexico’s deepwater oil auction to be held in December....MORE

Dear Silicon Valley: Forget Flying Cars, Give Us Economic Growth (Technology Review's 50 smartest companies)

From MIT's Technology Review, June 21, 2016:

Companies taking advantage of amazing new digital technologies dominate our list of 50 Smartest Companies. But despite impressive advances in artificial intelligence and automation, the economy remains in a troubling slowdown.
he headquarters of Alphabet’s X labs in Mountain View, California, is easy to miss. A simple yellow “X” marks the visitors’ entrance to the sprawling building that was once a large indoor shopping mall. But on a weekday in late May, the parking lot is bustling, filled with employees and visitors, as X’s pod-like driverless cars buzz about. Inside, various teams of mostly young people—the company won’t say just how many people are employed at the facility—work on “moon shots,” which Alphabet defines as transformative technologies that could have a huge impact on the world. Besides the driverless cars, publicly identified projects at X include Loon, an effort to use high-altitude balloons to deliver the Internet to remote regions of the world; Wing, which is building self-navigating drones for delivering stuff; and Makani, which is developing odd flying wind turbines tethered to a ground station.

Inside, skateboards, bikes, and scooters are everywhere, as are machine shops and expensive analytical instruments. This postmodern industrial research center—part design studio, part tech incubator, and part science lab—represents Silicon Valley at its best: ambitious, creative, and fixated on radical new technologies. And while X may have been widely ridiculed for its failure to convince the world that people needed its Google Glass, its remarkable progress with driverless cars—which are common enough on the surrounding streets of Mountain View to attract little notice—could make us forget such missteps. But Alphabet’s X, with its heavy investment in resources and people, also reminds us just how difficult it is to commercialize radical new technologies and how few companies can afford such efforts.

Given impressive advances in artificial intelligence, smart robots, and driverless cars, it’s easy to become convinced that we are on the verge of a new technological age. But the troubling reality is that today’s advances are having a far from impressive impact on overall economic growth. Facebook, Twitter, and other digital technologies undoubtedly bring great value to many people, but those benefits are not translating into a substantial economic boost. If you think Silicon Valley is going to fuel growing prosperity, you are likely to be disappointed—or you’d better be patient. While the high-tech industry creates impressive wealth for itself, much of the country is mired in a sluggish economy. It might be that driverless cars and other uses of advanced AI will eventually change that, but for now these technologies are not radically transforming the economy.

Economists who study productivity, a measure of output per worker, tell us that from around 1994 to 2004 the Internet and advances in computation helped fuel rapid growth. But during the past decade we slid back to far slower improvements in productivity, hence stagnant economic growth. And the phenomenon is showing up in advanced economies around the world, with countries such as Italy and the U.K. particularly hard hit. Many people feel the results as flat or declining wages, and the consequences have almost certainly contributed to deep political unrest in many countries. According to Chad Syverson, an economist at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, U.S. productivity grew at a mere 1.3 percent per year from 2005 to 2015, far less than the 2.8 percent annual growth rate during the decade earlier. Syverson calculates that had the slowdown not occurred, the gross domestic product would have been $2.7 trillion higher by 2015—about $8,400 for every American.

No one really knows the reason for the slowdown. Perhaps we have run out of ideas that match the great inventions of the 20th century in economic importance (see “Tech Slowdown Threatens the American Dream”). Or perhaps we haven’t done a good job measuring how recent advances in digital technologies and social media have affected the economy: if Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter are making us more productive, we don’t know because we can’t tally the true value of this free stuff. That’s possibly true, but even if it is, it doesn’t account for anything close to the measured slowdown in overall productivity growth. A more plausible explanation: it is proving difficult to convert recently developed digital technologies into meaningful changes in the economy’s largest sectors, such as health care, manufacturing, and transportation.

Even some of the strongest proponents of the idea that automation and digital technologies are going to revolutionize our economy are dismayed by the slow progress in implementing these advances. Erik Brynjolfsson, a professor at MIT’s Sloan School of Management and coauthor of The Second Machine Age, says the process has been “disappointingly difficult.” He says that while there has been “a lot of progress in the underlying technologies” in the last few years, companies are finding that making the necessary changes is expensive and takes time. “It’s not trivial. It’s not like flipping a switch,” says Brynjolfsson. “And companies are struggling.
See the Rest of the Package  
Michael Mandel, an economist at the Progressive Policy Institute in Washington, D.C., says the productivity slowdown is occurring in what he calls the physical industries, including manufacturing and health care. Such industries, which he estimates make up 80 percent of the national economy, account for only 35 percent of investments in information technology and their productivity reflects that, growing at only 0.9 percent annually. Meanwhile, productivity is growing by 2.8 percent a year in what Mandel calls digital industries, which include finance and business services. 

If that is what is going on, it leaves plenty of room for optimism. “As we learn to apply the new technologies,” says Mandel, “we could see growth in productivity speed up again.” Syverson agrees that while the IT gains of the late 1990s and early 2000s seem played out, he can “imagine a second wave.”

A material world
Our list of 50 Smartest Companies includes some that have used new digital technologies to destroy existing industries: Amazon, with its growing dominance of retail trade, and Facebook, with its inroads into the media. But it also includes examples of mature companies, like Bosch, a large German manufacturer using IT to meet its business challenges (we go to Allgäu, Germany, to visit a “factory of the future”). And it includes those pushing the limits of new digital technologies, as Baidu is doing in its effort to create autonomous cars and Alphabet with its remarkable advances in artificial intelligence....MUCH MORE

Nearly 400 Publishers Have Applied for Medium's Plan to Help Them Make Money

From AdAge:

Publishers Try Out Membership System on Medium
In early April, Medium, the platform founded by Ev Williams, made a pitch to the publishing community: come to Medium, and we'll help you make money. There's not a publisher these days that isn't looking for new revenue streams, so it's not surprising that nearly 400 publishers have applied to participate in the beta version of Medium's revenue program, according to figures provided by a spokeswoman for the company. (She declined to say how many applicants have been accepted.)

There are both advertising and consumer revenue opportunities available for publishers that either put their entire site on Medium, as The Awl and Bill Simmons's new The Ringer have done, or publish a Medium edition of their publication, like far more companies have done.
Medium aspires to play a big role in the publishing ecosystem, offering publishers both a technical lifeline (in the form of a sleek, easy-to-use platform, and back-end support) and a set of options to make money. Whether Medium is able to become the power player -- and journalism savior -- it seems to want to become depends on how many publishers actually take the company up on the offer its making.

Participating publishers can run links to promoted posts from advertisers at the bottom of articles and share a cut of the revenue with Medium.

Publications are also free to sell sponsorships on their own. The Ringer has a deal with Miller Lite, and there's a "Presented by Miller Lite" banner at the bottom of article pages.
A handful of publishers have also been testing out Medium's membership program, in which certain pieces of content are locked, available only to paying readers.

Serious Eats (a food site), Femsplain (a community for women) and Film School Rejects (movies and television) are the earliest three brands to experiment with membership on Medium, and all report being pleased with the early returns.

The default price for a publication membership on Medium is $5 per month, but Amber Discko, Femsplain's founder, said her members are allowed to give as much as they'd like beyond that. (Film School Rejects starts memberships at $3 per month.)...

"Even if Brexit Vote Wins, there may be No Brexit: Daiwa"

A smart piece of analysis from the day before the referendum.

That's not to say there won't be serious effects in both the short and medium runs, I mean we're already seeing a fair degree of whackitude but as mentioned over the weekend there are a lot of constituencies who will do just about anything to prevent an actual exit. Of course one has to be aware of the risk of confirmation bias...

From Wolf Street:
Daiwa Capital Markets, the investment banking arm of Daiwa Securities Group in Japan, issued a laundry list today of the biblical catastrophes that a Brexit will cause to the pound sterling, global equity markets, global futures markets, credit spreads…. It would “cause serious economic/market damage,” and “hardest hit, of course, would be UK financial assets.” And it would trigger a recession.
So the Leave vote would cause a lot of bloodletting among Daiwa’s constituents and globally. The Leave vote would be to blame. We get that. But it gets more complicated:
And while it may be expected that, after the initial knee-jerk response, some of the risk-off sentiment would quickly dissipate in most other markets, the likely economic and political fallout in the UK would affect asset prices there for a considerable period.
So the rout of UK stocks, bonds, home prices, etc. would continue. There would be QE and rate cuts in the UK in response to this rout and to a “sharp slowdown in its aftermath.”
A vote for Brexit “would usher in political uncertainty” of biblical proportions: Prime Minister David Cameron might have to go, given how he’d botched this situation, and his successor – Daiwa points at Boris Johnson – “would likely end up regretting taking the job.”
The note went after the Leave folks with a vengeance:
The Leave campaign, whose whole proposition centered on a set of, at best, dubious claims, have set out no plan whatsoever for how they would separate the UK from the EU.
Some members of the campaign (and hence the Cabinet post-Brexit) have claimed that they would be in no hurry to enact the Article 50 process that would trigger formal negotiations with the other 27 countries to extricate the UK from the EU. Instead, they have threatened to unilaterally withdraw from parts of the EU Treaties, something that would be a flagrant breach of international law and would risk retaliatory action from the rest of the EU.
At the same time, Johnson would face a House of Commons where there would still be an overwhelming majority of pro-EU MPs (and a pro-EU upper chamber), meaning that passing the enormous amount of legislation required to extricate the UK from the EU would likely prove impossible. This would be particularly true if a vote to Leave was only marginal.
OK, as American, I have no opinion on how Brits should vote. But Daiwa says, it might not matter how they vote: There may be no Brexit even if the Brexit vote wins.
If the people vote for Brexit, the subsequent politics are going to be very messy to a backdrop of chaotic financial markets, crashing asset prices, a swooning currency, a recession, and a second independence referendum in Scotland that would allow it to remain in the EU.

All of it would be decorated by “a clear message” from the EU “that the UK will not be able to negotiate a special deal with the EU on trade.” Daiwa’s note added:
In particular, full membership of the Single Market would require the UK to:
  • Continue to pay its dues to the EU (meaning the £350mn per week the Leave campaign have falsely claimed the UK gives to the EU would not be available for the myriad things the Leave campaign have said it would spend it on instead)
  • And accept free movement of people (breaking the Leave campaign’s most effective campaigning tactic that leaving the EU would allow the UK to “control its borders”).
Faced with reality, rather than rhetoric, and a realization that the promises of the Leave campaign cannot be fulfilled without causing enormous economic damage, buyers’ remorse may well set in, and pressure would likely grow for a second referendum.
So next time, the people would have a chance to correct their error and get the answer right.
If Daiwa’s cynical take on post-Brexit political developments in the UK turn out to be close to reality, it won’t be the first time that a referendum in the EU, after people voted the “wrong way,” would essentially be squashed.

In 2005, the French and Dutch voted against the European Constitution. It was scuttled alright. But it was replaced by the Treaty of Lisbon, which amended the treaties that form the constitutional basis of the EU.

In June 2008, Ireland, as obligated by its constitution, held a referendum to ratify the Treaty of Lisbon, and the people voted against it! That was the wrong answer. After the euro debt crisis began to engulf Ireland, the referendum was held again to give the people a chance to correct their error and get the answer right. And they did....MORE

Agricultural Commodities Rebounding

Last Chg
Corn 399-4+5-2
Soybeans 1096-2+17-6
Wheat 467-6+2-6

From Agrimoney:

AM markets: ags stage rebound, as focus returns to weather
Was that it?
Certainly, investors started off the week with a bigger appetite for risk assets – and especially for agricultural commodities - than that with which they ended last week, when the tremors from the UK's Brexit vote shook markets worldwide.
Shares rose on Asian markets, adding 2.4% in Tokyo and 1.4% in Shanghai.
OK, gold, the flagship safe haven bet (and viewed by some investors as a proxy for farmland prices), maintained its upward run – but with gains of 1.5% in early deals came nowhere near its 4.8% jump on Friday, the biggest one-day gain since January 2009.
 But the dollar, another rock for investors in troubled times, eased back a fraction, shedding 0.1% against a basket of currencies.
And that helped lure commodity bulls from their Brexit-resistant bunkers, with oil, viewed by many commentators as the flagship raw material, adding 0.5% to 48.64 a barrel, for Brent crude as of 09:35 UK time (03:35 Chicago time).
Pound lighter
Sure, for investors in Europe and the UK, the Brexit issue has not gone away, as evident in currency moves within the region.
The euro shed a further 0.5% against the dollar, to E1.105 to $1, failing to break back above the 200-day moving average lost in the last session, but also failed to come anywhere near the intraday lows seen then either.
And sterling lost a further 1.85 to stand a little over £1.34 to $1, again keeping a bit of distance from Friday's 30-year low of £1.3224 to $1.
The currency moves bode well for prices of European agricultural commodity contracts, eg London cocoa and Paris wheat.
Chicago futures bounce
Indeed, they could get a double boost, factoring in also the draw from a sprightly start to US-traded ags, with Chicago grains seeing an extension of the late buying noted in the last session, which saw futures close well above intraday lows (and even in positive territory for spot Chicago wheat).
Chicago wheat futures for July added a further 0.9% in early deals on Monday, taking it to $4.59 a bushel, with the better-traded September lot gaining 0.9% to $4.69 ¼ a bushel....

Also at Agrimoney:

Three ways to profit in agriculture from Brexit
The good, the mixed, the worrying - three Brexit effects on world ag
Brexit - what does it mean for agriculture and global markets?