Monday, October 7, 2013

Oil: Shell's Iraqi Giant Comes Online

The outages in Nigeria (200,000 bbl/day lost to theft/vandalism) and Libya (1.2mm bbl/day lost to protests, strikes, Arab Spring) and Syria (300,000 bbl/day-Al Qaeda Spring) are close to being 15%* replaced.
From MoneyBeat:
Just a couple of weeks ago the energy world applauded the startup of not one but two huge projects—Kazakhstan’s much delayed, hugely expensive Kasahagan oil field and the Caspian Shah Deniz natural gas field.

Now, Shell’s official opening of the giant Majnoon oil field means a third significant project has come on line in a month.

Three’s a charm.

Located near the southern oil hub of Basra, Iraq, Majnoon is expected to ramp up to 175,000 barrels a day in the coming weeks. The Wall Street Journal’s Summer Said explains that the output level is key for Shell’s plans as that is the volume required for it to start recovering costs; Majnoon is also vital to Iraq’s ambitious plan to increase its daily output to at least 6 million barrels from the current 3.2 million.

Movement toward this target will be aided also by BP’s deal to help revive the Kirkuk oil field, where 10 billion barrels may still be laying underground.

Oil isn’t the only thing on the up in Iraq. By most metrics Iraq is in a state of civil war....MORE
*Kasahagan had just started ramping up when a gas leak was detected. Production is supposed to restart as of today, achieving 75,000 bbl/day by month-end and 160,000 bbl/day in 2014.
Combined with Majnoon that gets back 245,000 bbl/day of the 1.7mm bbl/day that is out of production.

If I were an oil bull the thought of those outages coming back online would keep me up at night.