Saturday, October 18, 2014

"A divergence worth noting: the economy is getting stronger while financial markets are becoming more fragile"

The point we were getting at in Thursday morning's "Citigroup Sees $1.1 Trillion Stimulus From Oil Plunge":
Brent $82.75 down $1.03, Nov. WTI $80.37 down $1.41 after trading as low as $79.78.
Equity index futures indicating down 152 on the DJIA and down 21.25 on the S&P 500.
With every downtick starting to feel the old "Long ain't wrong" vibe.... 
From Conor Sen:

The Great Divergence: The Economy is Getting More Stable, Financial Markets Are Getting More Fragile
Still processing the bond market moves of yesterday…

Yesterday was really stupid. As have been the past few weeks, which increasingly feel like a “baby August 2011,” when markets were even more stupid.

The challenge for portfolio managers in 2014 is that you’d be hard-pressed to find a 5-year period in US history where the economic trajectory was more stable. Real GDP has generally grown between 2-3%/year. Inflation has been in the mid 1%’s. Job growth has been remarkably stable, averaging 150-225k/month. Profit margins have been stable for the past few years, and overall earnings growth has been, I don’t know, 5-8%/year. Monetary policy has been ultra accommodative. Fiscal policy has been…consistent in its level of frustration....MORE
HT to, and headline from: Abnormal Returns