Thursday, January 15, 2015

Chartology: A Possible Trend Change as Gold Rises Above Its 200-Day Moving Average (GLD)

Following up on my earlier reasoned analysis, "*#$ @! Swiss".
Feb. gold $1262.10 up $27.10.
From Safehaven:
For weeks I have been predicting that precious metals and the junior gold miners would bottom and outperform in January. Now gold is breathtakingly breaking above the key 200 day moving average and breaking four month highs as the World looks to gold as a safe haven. The intermediate to long term trend may be turning positive and unfortunately the amateur investor has already panicked out or may be covering their shorts.
GLD SPDR Gold Trust Shares NYSE + BATS
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This breakout in gold could end the lower high pattern or downtrend. Sentiment is changing from negative to positive. Already for weeks, I highlighted the positive momentum in the junior gold miners despite the new low in December. This divergence usually signals an interim bottom and turning point. A few weeks ago precious metals and the shares were hitting new lows. The amateur investor panicked out. I told my subscribers to hang on and buy more at the bottom. Now the Junior Gold Miners are up over 14% since the beginning of the year outperforming the S&P500 and US dollar....MORE
And from Barron's Focus on Funds:

Swiss Central Bank Confirms ‘Currency Battle,’ Sets Up Bull Market for Gold
In about-face by the Swiss National Bank catapulted gold prices to a four-and-1/2 month high as investors sought the safety of the yellow metal.

Gold futures rose $26, or 2.1%, to $1,260 an ounce in recent trading. The SPDR Gold Shares exchange-traded fund (GLD) rose 2.6% to $121. The move put GLD right at its so-called 200-day moving average, a medium-term technical pivot point. ETFs that own miner stocks got lift from gold’s rise. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) rose 6.2% in recent trading.

The Swiss central bank shocked global currency and stock markets on Thursday by ceasing its long-standing policy of capping the value of the franc versus the euro. It also lowered the interest rates on deposits further, a deterrent to parking cash with the central bank. The franc soared while Swiss stocks tumbled 8.7%, their worst one-day slide since 1989.

Market pundit Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group, an economic advisory firm, said that the case for gold is strong in a world of heavy-handed central banks.
“Bottom line, the Swiss Bank’s balance sheet has gone from 100b francs to 525b since 2008, an extraordinary increase for a bank and a currency that was historically the bastion of sound, hard money.
The increase has certainly been a sign of the central banking times but the SNB finally said enough is enough and defending the Swiss franc is a fruitless endeavor....
...MORE
Earlier: