Friday, January 9, 2015

Natural Gas Bounces Along The Bottom, Nuke Plant Closure Could Add Some Demand

The pull from storage reported yesterday,  131 billion cubic feet, was at the 5-year average and above expectations of 121 billion, normally bullish but in the face of big supply not really. In comparison, last year's withdrawal was 191 Bcf.
$2.9530 last up 2.6 cents.
Here's the recent action via FinViz:

From the Energy Information Administration:
Vermont Yankee nuclear plant closure could add gas demand
Entergy Corporation’s Vermont Yankee 604-megawatt (MW) nuclear power plant retired last week, after 42 years of service. The closure of the generating station, which provided about 4% of the region’s electricity sales, will increase New England’s dependence on natural gas for power generation, according to the Independent System Operator of New England (ISO-NE), the region’s wholesale power market operator. EIA estimates that natural gas electric power generation capacity of a similar size to Vermont Yankee could burn about 100 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) of natural gas.

Entergy cited low wholesale prices, high costs of maintenance, and low prices in regional markets for electric generating capacity as reasons for closing Vermont Yankee.

Nationally, other nuclear power plants have announced their retirement in the past few years because of high maintenance costs and declining profitability. Three years ago, in California, the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station (SONGS) was shut down following a leak, and operator Southern California Edison concluded it would not be economic to spend a huge sum to fix the two operating units. The politically controversial SONGS had been producing 2,150 MW of power.

Nonnuclear facilities in New England have also retired or announced their intent to shut down. Dominion Energy Resources retired its nearly 750-MW Salem Harbor coal- and petroleum-fired power plant in Massachusetts in June 2014. Dominion cited a combination of the costs of compliance with new environmental regulations as well as declining profits for coal-fired units in New England. Future shutdowns include the 1,520-MW Brayton Point coal- and natural-gas/oil-fired power plant in Somerset, Massachusetts, expected to be shut down in 2017.

Natural gas has increased as a share of fuel for power generation in New England over the past several years, rising to 52% in 2012 when natural gas prices reached record lows. In 2013, natural gas’s share of generation fell to 45%, but was still much greater than in previous years. In addition, ISO-NE said in its regional system plan that more than 4,500 MW of natural gas capacity and 3,700 MW of wind capacity has been proposed, as more retirements are expected in the next few years....MUCH MORE
And the supply half of the supply/demand picture:

U.S. Natural Gas Supply - Gas Week: (1/1/15 - 1/7/15)

Percent change for week compared with:
last year
last week
Gross Production
9.74%
-2.73%
Dry Production
9.65%
-2.71%
Canadian Imports
-8.93%
21.95%
      West (Net)
4.11%
3.71%
      MidWest (Net)
-14.38%
29.42%
      Northeast (Net)
-22.62%
77.68%
LNG Imports
52.23%
606.03%
Total Supply
7.93%
-0.46%