Thursday, August 10, 2017

The USDA's World Agricultural Supply/Demand Estimates Report Is Out; Grains Are Down

Via Advance Trading Inc:

And from the USDA:

World Agricultural Supply  and Demand Estimates
August 10, 2017
Projected 2017/18 U.S. wheat supplies are decreased this month on lower production, down 21 million bushels to 1,739 million. The August NASS production forecasts for durum and other spring wheat indicated a significant decline compared to last year , primarily due to continued severe drought conditions affecting the Northern Plains. Partially offsetting this decrease is higher winter wheat production, on increased yiel ds, with most of the production increase for white wheat. Food use estimates for both 2016/17 and 2017/18 are reduced, based primarily on the August 1 , NASS Flour Milling Products report. The other wheat usage categories for 2017/18 are unchanged this mo nth. Projected 2017/18 ending stocks are decreased 5 million bushels to 933 million. The 2017/18 season -average farm price is unchanged at the midpoint of $4.80 per bushel and the projected range remains at $4.40 to $5.20 .

Global 2017/18 wheat supplies increased significantly , primarily on an 8.6 -million -ton production increase in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). Russian production is a record 77.5 million tons, surpassing last year’s record by 5.0 million. Winter wheat yields are forecast higher for b oth Russia and Ukraine, based mainly on harvest results to date. Additionally, spring wheat conditions have remained very favorable for both Russia and Kazakhstan, resulting in higher production forecasts. Canadian wheat production is reduced 1.9 million tons to 26.5 million on the increasing intensification of drought conditions in major production areas of the Prairie Provinces. The increased FSU production more than offsets reduced production forecasts in Canada, EU, and U.S., raising 2017/18 global production by more than 5.0 million tons to 743.2 million.

Foreign 2017/18 trade is increased on higher exports for Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan more than offsetting reductions in Canada and EU. Projected imports are raised for several countries, led by Indonesia and Nigeria. Total world consumption is projected higher, primarily on greater usage by Russia, Indonesia, and Nigeria. Projected global ending stocks are 4.1 million tons higher this month at 264.7 million , which is a new record.

This month’s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for lower supplies, reduced feed and residual use and exports, and a decline in ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 14.2 billion bushels, down 102 million from the July projection. The season’s first survey -based corn yield forecast, at 169.5 bushels per acre, is 1.2 bushels lower than last month’s trend- based projection. T his month’s Crop Production report indicates that South Dakota, Iowa, Minnesota, and Illinois are forecast to have yields below a year ago. The projected yield for Indiana is unchanged relative to last year, while Nebraska and Ohio are forecast higher. Sorghum production is forecast 13 million bushels higher with the forecast yield 2.6 bushels per acre above last month’s projection....MUCH MORE (40 page PDF)
As noted in yesterday's "Ag Commodities: Ahead of Tomorrow's USDA Supply/Demand Report, Small Upticks":
This month and next the reports can really shake things up if the specs get caught on the wrong side of a move....